SearchLens 3-Bucket Classification Methodology

Input signals (per query, period-over-period)

• Position Delta (Δpos): current average position minus previous average position (lower is better in GSC).
• Impression Delta (Δimp): relative change in impressions: (imp_current − imp_previous) / imp_previous.
• CTR Delta (Δctr): relative change in click-through rate: (ctr_current − ctr_previous) / ctr_previous.
• Click Delta (Δclk): relative change in clicks.

Bucket 1 — Cited, Not Clicked (AI Overview citation theft)

Operational definition: Google likely cited or summarized the result inside an AI Overview while withholding the organic click. Rankings appear healthy; traffic does not.

IF  |Δpos| <= 1.5
AND Δimp >= 0          // impressions stable or growing
AND Δctr <= -0.35      // CTR collapsed 35% or more
THEN → Bucket 1: Cited, Not Clicked

Agency action: Present to clients as AI Overview click interception — not a failed SEO campaign. Defend retainers with query-level proof.

Bucket 2 — Replaced by Answer (zero-click cannibalization)

Operational definition: The SERP no longer delivers measurable query-level visibility; the informational need is satisfied in-line.

IF  Δimp <= -0.50     // total query impressions down 50%+
AND global/category query volume = stable
AND |Δpos| within normal band (rank not the primary driver)
THEN → Bucket 2: Replaced by Answer

Agency action: Reallocate budget (paid, brand, product-led) — not another blog refresh.

Bucket 3 — Normal Ranking Decay (classic SEO)

Operational definition: Standard ranking position loss driving click decline — unrelated to AI Overview citation patterns.

IF  |Δpos| > 3        // meaningful position loss
AND Δclk <= -0.15      // clicks down 15%+
THEN → Bucket 3: Normal Ranking Decay

Agency action: Execute on-page, technical, and authority work — the same playbook as pre-AIO SEO.

Production calibration in SearchLens

The live SearchLens engine applies minimum impression floors and join rules on matched GSC queries to reduce noise: Bucket 1 requires ≥100 current impressions, impression change ≥ −10%, CTR change ≤−20%, |Δpos| ≤3; Bucket 2 requires ≥50 impressions, Δimp <−20%, Δctr ≤−15%, |Δpos| ≤4; Bucket 3 requires |Δpos| >3 and Δclk ≤−15%. These thresholds align with the framework above while filtering low-volume volatility.

Health Score composite

SearchLens computes a 0–100 Client Health Score from site-wide click trend, CTR trend, average position movement, and weighted AI bucket exposure (Bucket 1 + 1.5× Bucket 2). Scores in the high-50s to mid-60s indicate recoverable AIO pressure — urgent but actionable.

Why this methodology exists

Industry studies in 2025–2026 document organic CTR degradation of roughly 34.5% to 61% on queries triggering AI Overviews. Agencies using Semrush or Ahrefs snapshots cannot isolate interception at query granularity. SearchLens exists solely to close that operational gap.